Research
Publications & Articles
Applying behavioral economics to everyday decision-making—health, security, and beyond—with a focus on Nigeria and the broader African context. We're also building open tools from this work—see what's in progress →
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Demand, Discounting, Commodities and Constraints: A Primer on Behavioral Economics in Health
Why do people choose one health option over another—and what would it take to change their minds? This paper lays out a framework, built on demand and discounting, for understanding how people weigh cost, timing, and constraints in health decisions.
Read the working paper on SSRN →Using Behavioral Economics to Evaluate Demand for Elderly Care Facilities in Nigeria
As younger Nigerians relocate to cities and more women join the workforce, elderly care facilities—a largely new option in Nigeria—are starting to emerge. But cultural attitudes and concerns about facility quality still shape whether families use them. This paper lays the groundwork for future studies to measure that demand directly.
Read the working paper on SSRN →A Behavioral Economic Analysis of Demand for Health Insurance in Nigeria
Only 5% of Nigerians have health insurance. This study found a surprising twist: lower-income and younger Nigerians actually want more coverage, not less—and very cheap plans backfire, since rock-bottom prices make people suspect poor quality. The findings point to a pricing sweet spot (₦3,000–₦17,500) and targeted subsidies for the groups most eager to buy in.
Read the preprint on medRxiv (PDF) →Anticipating HIV Vaccines: A Cross-cultural Behavioral Economic Demand Analysis
Comparing Nigerian (n = 119) and U.S. (n = 63) participants, this study found Nigerians were significantly more price-sensitive to both HIV and COVID-19 vaccines—despite similar risk tolerance in both groups. The results point to pricing and policy strategies needed for equitable vaccine access in lower-income countries.
Read the working paper on medRxiv (PDF) →Support at What Odds? A Mixed-Methods Behavioral Economic Analysis of Nigerian Demand for U.S. Military Intervention
When would Nigerians support U.S. military intervention against regional violence, and how much uncertainty would they tolerate? Support held up even as the odds of success fell, dropping to 50% only around a 1-in-6 chance of success—while interviews pointed to institutional distrust and sovereignty concerns as the biggest reasons people hesitated.
Read the working paper on SSRN →Articles
The Behavioral Science Revolution Africa Needs
About ten years ago, I found myself in Twon-Brass, an island tucked into the oil-rich belly of Nigeria’s Niger Delta. It sounds a bit glamorous until you are actually there. I was doing community fieldwork for an HIV/AIDS program: walking under the scorching sun, soaked in sweat, doing my best to convince poor, skeptical fishermen to take an HIV test.
Read on Substack →